Colts versus Patriots Week 9 (Revised)

Below this commentary, I have a sort of balanced look at the match up; I am probably biased, but I just don’t see how the Patriots intend to win. If you ask me there is a lot of smoke and mirrors to what is going on with the Patriots and it does not make good news or television to point out the facts.

Everyone has pointed out all of the gaudy Tom Brady numbers. However, if you ask me the offense has under performed in several ways.

The Patriots have played mostly the worst defenses in the league while the Colts have played many of the best defenses yet the Patriots are slightly behind the Colts in the “Win Indicators”: yards/carry, 3^rd down conversion percentage, and turnover ratio (specifically on offense the Patriots have more giveaways).

In defense of Patriots, they have played some of the better offenses in the league and the defenses held up reasonably well which is largely due to turnovers. However, I have one caveat to this: the Patriots are 26^th in the league in red-zone defense so they just can’t stop anybody inside the 20.

The Patriots have an explosive passing attack; however, the Colts defense is designed philosophically to stop the big play and run-after-the-catch.

Colts Advantage(s)

-No Huddle Tires the older Patriot defense because it prevents the platooning that the older players on the Patriot defense require.

Pats Challenge(s)

-Force three and outs on defense

-Run the football effectively on offense to help give the defense a rest. (Unfortunately the -pats don’t have a big bruising 250 lb running back that Colts have trouble tackling)

Colts Advantage(s)

-Defense designed to stop the pass, capable of getting pressure with only 4 guys.

Patriot Challenge(s)

-Stay patient only take the deep ball when its there. Use the tight end and slot receiver.

Patriots Advantage(s)

-Well schemed defense that is good at generating sacks

Colts Challenge(s)

Getting all of the Blitzes blocked.

Tossup(s)

I don’t trust either teams run defense. The Colts will be forced to stop the run without Bob Sanders’s support (However, the Pats have smaller backs making this more of a possibility). The Patriot run defense just isn’t that good teams have been running right at Tedy Bruschi. Richard Seymour may or may not play and be of assistance in this capacity.

Cowboys Versus the Patriots Week 5

I don't see this Dallas game as a blowout. I have the Pats by a touchdown, but here is what I think that Dallas needs to do:

What I know they can do:

Run the football like crazy

Work on eliminating turnovers and penalties

Pressure Tom with 4 or 5 guys and play cover 1 or 2 the whole game.

They could help themselves a lot if:

They can go no huddle - to take advantage of the older Pats defense which compensates with platooning. However, the Dallas O line may not be able to handle it.

Have Romo escape the pocket and run for a first down or two.

Why the Patriot Offense is so Good?

As of week 4 here are the leagues bottom 7 defenses according to ESPN. As of week 5 they will have played every one of these teams except Oakland and Detroit.

26	San Diego	1404	351.0	392	98.0	1012	253.0	102	25.5
27	Oakland	1423	355.8	518	129.5	905	226.3	100	25.0
28	NY Jets	1462	365.5	450	112.5	1012	253.0	103	25.8
29	Detroit	1527	381.8	457	114.3	1070	267.5	121	30.3
30	Cincinnati	1612	403.0	608	152.0	1004	251.0	129	32.3
31	Cleveland	1710	427.5	640	160.0	1070	267.5	118	29.5
32	Buffalo	1722	430.5	592	148.0	1130	282.5	93	23.3

Give Me the Rent