Saturday, January 27, 2007

Super Bowl Colts over Bears by 10

Strength of Schedule (edge Colts)
The Bears are a good team and can win against anybody on every given Sunday; However, the NFC is a weaker conference than the AFC. This amounts to two things. One, the Bears have a weaker schedule which inflates their statistics on both defense and offence. Two they have a weaker strength of victory meaning that they have beaten weaker teams so it is unclear whether or not the Bears are a strong enough team to beat the Colts especially when we consider common opponents.

Common Opponents (edge Colts)
Th Bears are not ready to play the top-notch competition. The Bears lost two meaningful (i.e. the Bears hand not clinched a playoff spot) games this year: They lost to the Dolphins and the Patriots; both are AFC teams. The Colts played both of these teams. The Colts beat the Dolphins once and the Patriots twice.

Proven to be able to move the ball against top AFC defences (edge Colts)
The colts defeated the Dolphins, Ravens, Patriots, and Jaguars. The Bears were defeated by the Dolphins and Patriots. The bears might be able to do this but in my mind they have not proven it. By beating top NFC defenses.

Special teams (edge Bears)
There is no doubt that the Bears have a better kick return game which could be the difference in this game. However, Vinitieri for the Colts is a proven clutch kicker so if it comes down to a last second field goal for the Colts, it is lights out for the Bears. I would suspect that manning will go deep on some 3rd down passes to that might get intercepted. An interception of a 40-yard pass might be better in terms of field position than punting to Devon Hester.

Other factors (edge Colts)
The Bears are not used to the Colts no-huddle. Division opponents of the Colts draft players to deal with it. It is unlikely that the Bears may not have the personnel to deal with it.

The Bears throughout the season have run the ball about as well as the Colts. Controlling for AFC NFC differences, the Bears needing to run more due to their suspect passing game and so on. The Bears are not a good running team.

If the Bears stop the Colts from running that is okay because the Colts have Peyton Manning. If the Bears get stopped from running they have to rely on a suspect QB, defense, and special teams to score points.

The Bears will not be able to force turnovers on the Colts like they have on sub-par NFC teams.

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Saints Bears

I know that the game has already started, but right before the game, I have decided that the bears will win. Love has those guys believing that they are the underdogs, and he has done a lot to hype up the defense.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Colts By 13 Over Patriots

The Pats are not who they once were. The Colts will be firing on all cylinders. The first time this year that they met the Pats O line could not stop Freeney or Mathis. Expect more of the same. Expect Marvin and Reggie to show up big.

-The Genius [of Bill Bellichick] is a myth created by the media. Greatness is real and can't be stopped- Mike Ditka on LT in Pats vs. Chargers.

The Pats have no answer for the Colts.

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Colts leaving Baltimore

They have been making a lot of this in the media. I thought that their had to be more to it. The Colts left because the city of Baltimore would not build a new stadium, and they threatened to use eminent domain against the owner forcing the team to stay in Baltimore, and removing the Irsays as owners. The bottom line is that they had it coming. The city of Baltimore had lost their fucking minds and forgot who owns the team.

Here is the link to the full article.

Sunday, January 07, 2007

KC/Baltimore/ Indy/ Ohio StateUpdate***

Well, It went like I thought. The weakness in the KC line was exposed. Apparently, they have a good center and two good guards, but the tackles are weak. Although Peyton was not patient the defense unexpectedly stepped-up.

I don't have a Baltimore prediction because I think that it will be too close to call assuming that the Colts' defense comes to play. However, the Colts can win if they limit turnovers, Vinatieri plays great, and the defense plays reasonably well. Baltimore's defense is great, and we don't want to turnover the ball so that the, By can score. Alsoaltimore's offense is incredibly weak. They only score because the defense gives them extra chances.

I think that on paper (i.e. based on the season statistics), Baltimore has the advantage. However, the Colts have made changes to bolster special teams, and Sanders is back on defense. They just flat out put it to KC. I think that it is hard to know what to expect out of anything but the Colts offense right now.

Ohio State
A sports commentator said it best when he said that I thought that Ohio state could win until I saw what USC did to Michigan meaning that Ohio State has similar speed to Michigan which just ain't that fast.

Monday, January 01, 2007

KC at Indy Prediction

This is going to be a good game. In my opinion any playoff game can go either way, but having said that, I think that the Colts will take it. Indy specializes in pass rush and KC has given up 41 sacks this year. If Indy gets sacks they can stop drives. Indy can't stop the run and Larry Johnson is a good back. However, If I recall he was on pace to break a rushing attempts record. The bottom line is that KC has a weak offensive line which will make Indy's weak front 7 look better than it is. it is a fact that Johnson will rush for over 175 yards. However, I can't see KC having much of a passing game if the Indy comes with a good game plan.