Super Bowl Colts over Bears by 10
Strength of Schedule (edge Colts)
The Bears are a good team and can win against anybody on every given Sunday; However, the NFC is a weaker conference than the AFC. This amounts to two things. One, the Bears have a weaker schedule which inflates their statistics on both defense and offence. Two they have a weaker strength of victory meaning that they have beaten weaker teams so it is unclear whether or not the Bears are a strong enough team to beat the Colts especially when we consider common opponents.
Common Opponents (edge Colts)
Th Bears are not ready to play the top-notch competition. The Bears lost two meaningful (i.e. the Bears hand not clinched a playoff spot) games this year: They lost to the Dolphins and the Patriots; both are AFC teams. The Colts played both of these teams. The Colts beat the Dolphins once and the Patriots twice.
Proven to be able to move the ball against top AFC defences (edge Colts)
The colts defeated the Dolphins, Ravens, Patriots, and Jaguars. The Bears were defeated by the Dolphins and Patriots. The bears might be able to do this but in my mind they have not proven it. By beating top NFC defenses.
Special teams (edge Bears)
There is no doubt that the Bears have a better kick return game which could be the difference in this game. However, Vinitieri for the Colts is a proven clutch kicker so if it comes down to a last second field goal for the Colts, it is lights out for the Bears. I would suspect that manning will go deep on some 3rd down passes to that might get intercepted. An interception of a 40-yard pass might be better in terms of field position than punting to Devon Hester.
Other factors (edge Colts)
The Bears are not used to the Colts no-huddle. Division opponents of the Colts draft players to deal with it. It is unlikely that the Bears may not have the personnel to deal with it.
The Bears throughout the season have run the ball about as well as the Colts. Controlling for AFC NFC differences, the Bears needing to run more due to their suspect passing game and so on. The Bears are not a good running team.
If the Bears stop the Colts from running that is okay because the Colts have Peyton Manning. If the Bears get stopped from running they have to rely on a suspect QB, defense, and special teams to score points.
The Bears will not be able to force turnovers on the Colts like they have on sub-par NFC teams.